Since 2005, BYU is 33-3 against teams that did not make a bowl game (or are D-II). In contrast, during that same span BYU is only 21-18 against teams that made a bowl game. This number was ugly to me when I first saw it. However, I took a closer look and it is not as bad as I originally imagined. Let me explain.
In 2005, Bronco took over a team that was made primarily up of players from the Dark Days with He Who Must Not Be Named as Head Coach. In that year, BYU went 1-5 against teams that ended up making a bowl game. Not great, by any imagination, but we also had 7 or 8 walk-on defensive players starting (because He Who Must Not Be Named decided it was a good idea to recruit like 25 WR's the year before). Throughout the season, BYU got consistently better and lost two heartbreakers to Utah then Cal.
In contrast, not surprisingly, BYU has done well against bowl teams in the year where we also had a quality team. In 2006, we were 5-1 against bowl teams. In 2007, we were 5-2. I would argue that 2008 was our worst 10+ win team since Bronco took over, and not surprisingly, they were 2-3 against bowl teams. In 2009, we were 5-2 against bowl teams. Last year (Bronco's biggest down year since his first year) we were a mediocre 3-5 against bowl teams.
It is yet to be seen how many bowl teams we have beaten, this year. Right now, it looks like there may be none. Central Florida, inexplicably, has gone down the tube but only need to win two out of three to get into a bowl game. Utah State has a more uphill battle with needing 3 of 4 games (although their schedule is pathetic from here on out. Remember how these guys should have beaten us, CSU, Louisiana Tech, and AUBURN?) Whatever happens, this probably will not be one of our great years to remember. However, with the above statistics, it might not be fair to say that Bronco doesn't beat good teams...and hey, there's something to be said for almost always beating the teams you should.
Bowl Teams Non-Bowl Teams/D-II Total
2005: 1-5 5-1 6-6
2006: 5-1 6-1 11-2
2007: 5-2 6-0 11-2
2008: 2-3 8-0 10-3
2009: 5-2 6-0 11-2
2010: 3-5 4-1 7-6
21-18 33-3 54-21
Hmm...not convinced, D. Your argument fails to take into account the record of teams that made it into bowl games. A "bowl team" is a very broad term; it could include a 12-0 Florida team that is playing for the National Championship, or a 6-6 BYU team who is playing in the New Mexico Bowl. Also, not saying there weren't, but when you make a statement that says that there were 7 or 8 walkons playing on defense in '05, then you need to substantiate it. Finally, your line about BYU improving late in Bronco's first season points at something else: his teams are AWFUL early on in the season. Maybe he should start focusing on teaching his players how to play football in the offseason, not the proper way of filling out a tithing slip.
ReplyDeleteBYU Records through 3 games under Bronco Mendenhall, Presiding Bishop of the LaVell Edwards Stadium 2nd Ward:
2005: 1-2
2006: 1-2
2007: 1-2
2008: 3-0 (but I would def agree with your worst 10 win team claim)
2009: 2-1
2010: 1-2
2011: 1-2
Grandpa's teams were traditionally slow starters, as well. I wonder if it is has more to do with being a pass first offense? I think being a timing route pass-oriented team was why Grandpa's teams struggled in bowls after a long lay-off. Bronco is 4-2 in bowls, though. So not sure what the deal is.
ReplyDeleteHaha, D, I commend you for not taking the bait. But yeah, who knows. It could be a little of that. I think it could also have a little bit to do with a tougher non-conference schedule (obviously, excluding this year) early on in the season, then going through a weak conference. It's kind of been that way this year, actually, since we're essentially in the WAC for a couple of years.
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