Friday, October 21, 2011

Preparing for TCU and Review of Oregon St.

BYU plays this week against Idaho St. who is 2-5 in Division II (or whatever they call it, now). That's about all you need to know about them.

So, on to more important things with BYU football.  First of all, I made the point that I liked the dispersion of passes to different receivers, backs and tight ends by Riley Nelson in his first two games against Utah State and San Jose. Against Oregon St., 162 of his 217 passing yards were to one receiver.  Is that a problem? This might sound hypocritical, but I am going to say no. Hoffman ran wild against Oregon State and if the dude is open and going to catch everything you throw towards him, go for it. I did not see anything on Saturday that would suggest a Max Hall-Austin Collie/Dennis Pitta problem where Hall would always pass it to Collie or Pitta at the loss of his other receivers (who were more open).

Having said that, I am disappointed by the disappearance of Ross Apo since Riley took over.  Apo got hurt early in the UCF game and so he didn't put up any numbers in that game. The three games prior to the UCF game, he had at least 3 catches in each game and at least one catch of over 20 yards in each to go with 3 touchdowns. In the three games since, he has only 5 catches (no TDs) with a long of 16 yards. I am not sure whether he is not getting open, if he is still shaken from the hit against UCF or if Riley isn't looking for him but it worries me that such an important weapon of our team has been non-existent for three straight weeks.

Offensively, Alisa is a stud. His running style reminds me a lot of Unga. Not the fastest or the strongest, but a great combination of enough speed, enough strength and great vision. He had some big runs against OSU (including a beautiful 30 yard TD taken back) but I most appreciate how he is churning out a good 5 yards a pop. This is a big reason for our huge jump in third down percentages. Before, we would get 2 or 3 yards from JJ or Kaiyra on first down, errant throw from Jake on second, and another errant throw (or pick) on third down. With Alisa running this way, we have had a huge jump in manageable third downs and our percentage has gone through the roof with it.

Riley has played well, too. In all three games since he has taken over (including the second half against Utah State) the team has finished with over 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing. That balance makes us tough to beat. Our running backs are good (particularly Alisa), right now. However, I am worried about the thought of what will happen if we are forced to win games with Riley's arm instead of his (and our backs) legs. Except against a Utah State game in prevent defense, we have not seen yet whether Riley can pull that off. Also, he is a machine that only has two functions it seems: touchdowns and turnovers. We have only punted once with him in but six of our drives have ended in turnovers, 4 by him (including that terrible pass to Apo. Never took his eyes off him and he wasn't even open).

The fact that Riley hasn't beaten anyone except 2-4 Utah State in a prevent defense with his arm brings me to the TCU game. TCU, this year, is beatable but not bad. They are 4-2 and have lost to two good teams. The deciding factor in both of those games, though, was the teams ability to throw the football. Both SMU and Baylor had fantastic passers.  Against SMU, TCU gave up 349 passing yards and 4 TDs in the air. Against Baylor, TCU gave up 359 passing yards and 5 TDs in the air. In other words, they are beatable through the air. Can Riley do it? We'll see.

While BYU as not proven we can beat anyone through the air, it's been proven that we are definitely beatable in our own secondary. While the defense only gave up two meaningful touchdowns last week (the offense coughed one up on Riley's pick six and Oregon St. scored with less than a minute left down by 17) the secondary again gave up over 300 yards. This is especially concerning because TCU has a good passer that doesn't make many mistakes (15 TDs, 4 INTs). Our secondary has made a living off of giving up huge chunks of yards and then getting a mistake from the QB (OSU: 306 passing yards, 2 picks; SJSU: 255 yards, 2 picks; UCF: 272 yards, no TDs and a pick in the red zone). Since TCU's QB, Pachall, gets lots of yards, lots of TDs and makes few mistakes, this could spell trouble for our secondary. On the bright side, he lacks the mobility Dalton had and is very sackable. The D-Line needs to step up.

All that said, looking forward to an easy one this week and a good one two weeks from now. Now, for your viewing pleasure.

http://vimeo.com/30648763

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